One of the most informative graphs today — and one well worth studying– is the Keeling Curve. It is a presentation of carbon dioxide, as systematically measured at Mauna Loa, beginning in the late 1950’s. It shows how we have moved from 315 parts per million (ppm) CO₂ to 400 ppm in less than 60 years.

When Charles Keeling began measuring CO₂ near the top of Mauna Loa, a few surprising patterns quickly emerged. One was the fact that the CO₂ levels would cycle up and down within the day (reflecting CO₂ consumption by plants during the daylight hours), as well as the cycling within the year (reflecting seasonal variations such as the dormancy of many plants in the winter). Another pattern was that the curve’s peaks and lows were climbing each year; in fact, the amount of CO₂ in our atmosphere has increased roughly 30% since the late 1950’s.

The source of the vast majority of this CO₂ is humanity’s excessive (and still growing) consumption of fossil fuels. Some nations, particularly the most developed nations such as the United States, have much higher per capita consumptions. Some activities (such as aviation) involve exceptionally high rates of fossil fuel consumption.

Those who are concerned about the health of our environment find these patterns disturbing. On the other hand, those who reap profits from this fossil fuel consumption have an incentive to ignore and discredit these concerns. Oil companies are ‘fueling’ a lot of controversy and confusion by investing a fraction of their large profits into the ‘Big Oil’ propaganda campaigns. The media derives its profits from advertising, and thus tends to tailor its ‘news’ to keep the advertisers happy. Today’s elected officials have increasingly demonstrated that they are most attuned to money and do not want to bite the hand that feeds that money … thus they predictably waffle and delay and well, do nothing.

There is also the political problem that it is all too easy to pass the blame onto someone else. For example, in the last two decades, China surpassed the U.S. and became the world’s leading nation in total annual CO₂ generation. *In the year 2010, China’s 1.34 billion people produced roughly 2.2 Teratons of Carbon, while 309 million U.S. citizens produced roughly 1.5 Teratons of Carbon. Thus, the comparative Carbon output was 4.8 metric tons per capita (U.S.) vs. 1.7 metric tons per capita (China).
A Teraton is 1,000,000,000,000,000 kilograms.So, many pro-oil Americans point their finger at China, while ignoring the fact that, on a per capita basis, each U.S. citizen produces triple the CO₂ of an average Chinese citizen.*

<< <><<>> <> >>

The controversy continues, but the facts are beyond dispute. Looking at both graphs above, there is a high level of certainty that we will peak at around 403 ppm this Spring, above 405 ppm in 2015, and most likely above 440 ppm by 2034. And, another very important fact is this: the more we do nothing, the deeper our predicament becomes, and the harder it will be for our grandchildren to fix this problem. Here are the hard numbers, easy to see.

The table below presents the monthly CO₂ levels as measured at Mauna Loa, from 1958 onward. The data has been formatted so as to emphasize the patterns. The peaks normally occur in May (sometimes in April or June) and are marked in larger red text. The troughs always occur in September or October, and are marked in larger blue text. The ‘Rise’ column presents the total increase in atmospheric CO₂ during the winter half of the year, when photosynthesis and other natural processes lag behind human-caused CO₂ generation. The ‘Fall’ column indicates the total decrease in atmospheric CO₂ between May and October, when plant photosynthesis in the Northern Hemisphere consumes excess CO₂ more quickly than humans generate it.

Table UPDATED 11/30/2014