Fake News, or Did Trump Just Swear an Oath to Climate Change Denialism?

(click on image to view source article at Reuters)

We’ve seen so much propaganda, manipulation and false news, especially that generated by the political parties and the mainstream media, that it is easy to hope this is just another false report. After all, with all the data indicating we are setting records for average high temperature, lowest polar sea ice extent, record high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and more, it sure seems like a bad time to start a war against science and facts. And, cabinet picks aligned with BigOil and BigBanks do not bode well, especially when so many selectees are so staunchly anti-environment.

It’s just our planet, right? Yeah. Right.

Let’s hope President Trump will surprise us. He needs to get serious about the prospective collapse that anthropogenic climate change will deliver, because he’ll earn the blame when his bad decisions tip the balance.

On the chance that the Reuters story is true, all the Climate Change Indicator documents have been copied, and are archived at this aiREFORM webpage. Study them at your leisure, while also distilling the pattern of low Arctic sea ice extent annual records in the table below. Click here to view screencaps of the EPA ‘Climate Change’ webpage, as it appeared prior to Presidential censorship.

A table showing year of minimum arctic sea ice extent for each day of the year. The smaller table at the bottom lists number of record days each calendar year, and number of spans (consecutive days the same year). Spans range from 4 days (2007) to 94 days (since 10/22/2016).


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UPDATE, 1/26/2016: — as of 1:00PM PST, still no noticeable changes to the EPA webpages being tracked. Perhaps Mr. Trump is backing down, or perhaps Reuters overstated the threat in their original news story?

UPDATE, 2/5/2016: — as of 8:45AM PST, still no noticeable changes to the EPA webpages being tracked. The reports and materials remain viewable and downloadable. It would appear that, despite the horrific cabinet choices from BigOil and wealth-elite elements of the oligarchy, President Trump’s ‘threat’ to hide climate science information was overstated by Reuters in their original news story. The key lesson to learn from this is that we all must be awake and leery, not just of the White House occupant and other elected officials, but also of the mainstream media (MSM), with its long track record of distortion to feed a specific political agenda.

(click on image to view source tweet)

A Classic Image in the War Against Carbon

Image

(click on image to view lots more, tweeted by 'ITryNotToFly')

(click on image to view lots more, tweeted by ‘ITryNotToFly’)

We Should All Be So Brave.

Let’s hope, in this New Year, we continue to see great creative effort and expression by some of the wonderful bloggers fighting for our planet and our future!

‘Fly Now, Grieve Later’ – a Report About Aviation’s Climate Change Impact (47p)

QUOTE

“…Most senior members of the aviation industry do not refute the need to cut emissions, but seek to persuade governments that air travel should be given special treatment….”

– Brendon Sewill, in Chapter One of ‘Fly Now, Grieve Later’

Click here to read the original blog post, or here for an archived PDF copy.


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Have We Just Seen a Drastic Change in Polar Ice?

Here’s a possibly weak analogy, but I think it makes the point well. Suppose you drive a car everyday and for a few months now you have listened to a squeak that you are pretty sure indicates you need to get maintenance on your brakes. Months have passed since you first realized this, because you have been busy and distracted. Minutes ago, while you were doing your normal drive, a failure happened, and that annoying squeak suddenly became something much bigger. Your instincts kicked in and you wrestled for control while veering off the road, struggling to avoid damaging your vehicle, yourself, and others.

That car might in fact be our planet, our climate system, our future. Do you see the problem? The analogy applies to the polar ice data, discussed below.

What Happened in October This Year?

Has our climate change situation ‘veered off course’ in the middle of 2016? Charts showing daily sea ice extent in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions suggest this is distinctly possible. See the screencaps below, showing two charts, both copied from the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) website, out of Boulder, CO. For both images, aiREFORM has selected sea ice extent for all years, 2005 through 2016, and only for the last four months of each calendar year. Note that the heavy black line represents the average from 1981 through 2000; the light gray band represents a two standard deviation statistical range either side of the average. Lastly, and most importantly, note the extraordinary departure of the dark red line at the bottom: this is 2016, and for both polar regions, the drop away from normality is as if a wheel fell off our loaded Christmas shopping cart.

20161210scp-nsidc-arctic-2005-2016-plots-for-final-5-months-of-calendar-year

NSIDC chart showing Arctic Sea Ice Extent, all years 2005-2016, for the last four months of the calendar year

20161210scp-nsidc-antarctic-2005-2016-plots-for-final-5-months-of-calendar-year

NSIDC chart showing Antarctic Sea Ice Extent, all years 2005-2016, for the last four months of the calendar year

And here’s another analogy. If an egg falls off a wall, is it possible, the consequences are irrecoverable? And, just how fragile is our climate? Would we be helping future generations if we were mindful to consume energy in moderation?

How This Connects to Air Travel

I was recently sent a link to a blog by a former air traffic controller spending a few years as a travelling ex-pat, living and travelling all over the globe. He essentially lays out why he now owns two valid U.S. passports, with this paragraph:

To me, it is perfectly reasonable to want to rush to a place because you can’t get a song out of your head: “London Calling,” “Kathmandu,” “Kashmir,” “New York, New York,” “Marrakesh Express?” I see nothing wrong with making a last-minute trip to Turkey just because there is a fantastic new seafood place on the Aegean Sea in Alacati. If the wildebeest migration is supposed to be especially photogenic in Tanzania next week, I want to be there. If you too think these things are reasonable, maybe you too should look into getting a second passport.

Now, don’t get me wrong. It is wonderful that people can travel and feel a richer life experience, day-to-day. But this activity, this level of consumption, has negative impacts. Others pay costs – some immediately, some in due time.

The immediate impacts are that the higher consumption of air miles translates to more flights, more planes per hour at locations already burdened with repetitive noise and air pollutant impacts; e.g., we see FAA working to add runway throughput at the hub airports, which causes perpetual sleep loss under the new NextGen routes.

The not-so-immediate impacts are, quite potentially, the destruction of the capacity of our planet to grow enough food and sustain many species. And, holy crap, looking at these two charts and applying decades’ worth of trained and experienced analytical skills, I can say: objectively, probabilities are much higher that these charts portend a serious and rapidly intensifying problem, versus the opposite.

Look, I’m not trying to be alarmist here, I’m just saying: let’s be fully eyes-open and awake with the decisions we make about how we each live, especially about our energy consumption, our own personal carbon footprint. To my friend, who is also a retired FAA air traffic controller, I’ll briefly rebut: “No, it is NOT perfectly reasonable to want to rush to a place because you can’t get a song out of your head. Just look at the charts above.”

Indeed, moderation is a beautiful thing.

Why We Need a Steep Carbon Tax on All Aviation Fuels

Other than war and arson, Aviation is the fastest way for an individual to generate carbon dioxide. Aviation is also a discretionary activity. As this graph shows, Arctic Sea Ice extent is collapsing, even in November. That’s right; the North Pole has been sunless for nearly two months now, and the entire Arctic Ocean region is now seeing no sunlight (the sun ‘set for the winter’ on 11/19, at Barrow, AK, which is at 71° N Latitude) … and yet Arctic Sea Ice extent is IN DECLINE!

We are now far below the average sea ice extent of the recent decades. Given trends this past decade, it is now highly probable that we will see an Arctic Ocean nearly free of ice within the next decade.

(click on image to see the source graphic, updated daily by National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSDC))

(click on image to see the source graphic, updated daily by National Snow & Ice Data Center)

Current CO2 levels are the highest they have been since our species evolved to make tools, grow crops, and invent things like wheels & air travel. And, due to our extreme appetite for fossil fuel consumption, the record levels continue year after year, as reflected in the incredible seasonal regularity of the Keeling Curve.

File:Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide.png

‘The Keeling Curve’ — The downward part of each annual cycle, from May to October, shows the importance of healthy vegetative growth. Essentially, plants consume CO2 from the atmosphere when healthy and growing. Development, land-clearing, and herbicides all reduce the health and diversity of our plants, and thus destroy the ability of our planet to check CO2 levels. Eventually, weather extremes and wildfires will diminish the vegetative growth, tipping the balance still further toward a physically hostile living environment.

Note that this is a copy of the Keeling Curve through 2010. In the six years since, the pattern has continued and in fact the rate of CO2 growth is accelerating; click here to see the current Keeling Curve, at Scripps .

Why an Aviation Carbon Tax?

Taxes are necessary to fund basic government programs. It makes sense to couple necessary taxation with incentives that correct growing problems. So, a steep tax on all aviation fuels, if designed to be ‘revenue-neutral’, would disincentivize excessive air travel, while also generating revenues that could substantially reduce income (and other) taxes. Here’s more about how this tax would work, and the diversity of people who support the concept:

Click on the image below for a scrollable view; the PDF file may be downloaded.

NASA Confirms July Was Hottest Month Ever Recorded

As shown with the marks added in the graph below, the monthly temperature anomalies for the past calendar year are all between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above 1880’s values. And, we set new all-time monthly records for each of the last ten months.

20160903scp.. graph of Earth Temp Anomalies 1880-2016, captured at July 2016, marked up

Colored boxes added to aid in eyeball estimation of increases: heights of orange boxes (2°C), green & red boxes (1°C).

One or two degrees Celsius may seem trivial, but it makes a huge difference in water evaporation rates, atmospheric water content, and thus the conduction of energy in the atmosphere. Translation: intensified weather events. Can aviation alone solve this problem of fossil fuel hyper-consumption? Of course not. But, nonetheless, aviation is extremely vulnerable as a focal area for trying to reduce weather intensification, sea-level rising, and climate change. The bulk of aviation activity is discretionary, consuming an enormous amount of fuel solely to achieve a time savings.

The bottom line: in the face of intensifying climate change, aviation is a ripe target for responsible governance, to include carbon-taxing and other efforts needed to substantially disincentivize and reduce fossil fuel consumption.

Click here to view the NASA news release (or here to view an archived PDF copy). Click on page two to view a series of screen captures including 1883, 1917, 1945, 1959, 1971, 1996 and July 2016.

Greenwashing the Significant (and discretionary) Impacts of Aviation

20160509cpy.. The Magic of Green Marketing'

(click on image to view source/original article at UpperBlackEddy.us)

Airlines for America can spin all they want, to try and convince the world that the  negative impacts of air travel can be conveniently overlooked, but it does not change the reality: that aside from war and arson, air travel is the most intensive human activity today, for the consumption of fossil fuels and the creation of greenhouse gasses. Always, these examples of greenwashing are aimed at helping people justify more consumption while ignoring the consequences of that consumption. But, our planet is finite. We simply cannot afford to continue these Ponzi schemes that say, we do better and better if we consume more and more. More consumption is now proving to mean more destruction.

Stepping above the debate and denialism, if the global warming and climate change issues are as dangerous as they conceivably are, and given that the impacts appear to be rapidly accelerating, it will do us no good to allow our planet to be destroyed. Do we really want to come to a day, perhaps to be lived by our babies born today, when a few rockets will launch in a vain attempt to save the human species?

If those rockets send our most politically powerful elites, will the species have a chance by sustaining the genepool of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?

Someday, if these rockets send off our most politically powerful elites, will the species have a chance … by sustaining the genepools and characters of people like Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton? (click on image to view source tweet by FAA, about a recent commercial rocket launch)

Pennsylvania to Vote in Primaries This Tuesday

(click on image to view tweet with short video clip)

(click on image to view tweet with short video clip)

20121105pic.. Flooding at KLGA post, Delta jetbridge

Flooding at La Guardia Airport caused by Hurricane Sandy, in 2012.

Today is the last Sunday before the presidential primaries in five key states, including Pennsylvania. I ran across a tweet with a short video clip at a Bernie Sanders rally, and a speaker noting that climate change will cause the airport at Philadelphia to become flooded. I have thoroughly studied airports across the nation, and have blogged before about flooding risks impacting Florida as well as LaGuardia and other major airports. But, until hearing this Bernie 2016 speaker, I had always assumed the Philly airport was at a safer and higher elevation. So, I looked up the data; the speaker was absolutely correct.
The major hub airport at Philadelphia [KPHL] is on the north bank of the Delaware River, not far from the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay. A look at the Airport Diagram shows that all four KPHL runways are very vulnerable to flooding; low points on each of the four runways are between 8-ft MSL and 10-ft MSL. While FAA is spending billions to further overdevelop KPHL, we are ignoring the risks of flooding, which grow greater each year. All to subsidize airline profits and prop up wasteful airport programs and corrupt incumbent politicians.

(four low elevations marked with yellow boxes)

(four low elevations marked with yellow boxes)

Pennsylvania gets to vote in the primaries this week. We have endured too many decades of top-down control by the two major parties, and the balance continues to tip toward expanding the wealth gap, enriching elected officials (like the Clintons), all while a full-blown oligarchy is setting in. We need real and rational change, and it is more easily done now than later.

There is only one candidate who accepts the real threat to our planet caused by our excessive consumption of fossil fuels. There is only one candidate who is not beholden to money interests such as the fossil fuel industry, the Av-Gov complex, the banks, pharma, etc. There is only one candidate demanding an end to our corrupt ‘pay-to-play’ politics … demanding real reforms so we have effective governance that is transparent and accountable. That candidate is Bernie Sanders.

Greenland Ice Facing an Early Melt Season (and new records)

An interesting article by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), detailing this year’s extraordinarily warm arctic winter and accelerating Greenland melt rates.

20160412.. Unusually Early Greenland Melt (Danish Meteorological Institute, PolarPortal.dk)

(click on image to view article at polarportal.dk)

Given that the mainstream media (and the airlines and other industries that buy services from the media) continue to downplay and ignore these developments, here is a simple list of what this plausibly means re our planetary future:

  1. melting Greenland ice is creating a lens of cold fresh water, accumulating in the northern Atlantic; this is shunting the warm-water Gulf Stream, which backs up against the cold lens and is forced to dive under the cold fresh water.
  2. the result, in climate terms, is a developing configuration with an area of very warm water adjacent to an area of very cold water; this configuration tends to intensify weather patterns, creating a high frequency of weather events with stronger winds and larger rainfalls/flooding (sort of like turning up the heat under a tea kettle; water that had been warm but quiescent now starts to circulate and bubble).
  3. other climate change results include an intensified north-south flow of weather patterns that causes rapid temperature fluctuations from unseasonably warm to killing frosts; on a local level, this will potentially destroy trees and other perennial plants, while also reducing our ability to produce needed annual food crops.
  4. the ice melt from both Arctic and Antarctic regions will increase the volume of water in our oceans, which in turn will cause tens of meters of sea level rise; major cities (and airports) will be flooded, including: London, New York, Miami, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rome, Buenos Aires, and many more. Hundreds of millions of people will be displaced; extraordinary acreages of the most productive farmland will be lost.

The connection to aviation comes in these ways:

  • First, the evident root cause of this climate change is the collective (and excessive) consumption of fossil fuels by all of humanity.
  • Some forms of fossil fuel consumption are more necessary, while some are more discretionary. While heating homes and providing electricity are relatively ‘necessary’ across the globe, flying for business or pleasure is a very discretionary activity.
  • The per capita rate of fossil fuel consumption is not even close to level; while some populations consume almost no fossil fuels, other populations are ‘off the charts’ due to daily commutes, air travel, suburban sprawl, etc.
  • Aviation is extraordinarily dependent on fossil fuels, in that we are nowhere close to developing alternative energy sources that can efficiently power scheduled passenger or cargo flights.
  • there is no other common human activity that consumes fossil fuels – and generates CO2 and other pollutants – at a faster rate than does aviation. The per capita pollution rate is particularly intense for business jet (bizjet) operations. Instead of tax laws that incentivize acquisition and use of bizjets, we need tax laws that strongly disincentivize.
  • The conversion of farmlands from growing food to growing aviation biofuels is absurd, unjust, and ultimately undermines security across vast regions of the world.
  • The combustion of fossil fuels at higher altitudes is believed to create significant air pollutants, including soot that precipitates onto areas of polar ice, thus further accelerating ice melt and sea level rise.

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