What Happens if Arctic Ice Seasonally Disappears?

No Winter For the Arctic in 2016 — NASA Marks Hottest January Ever Recorded is a recent Post at RobertScribbler.com. As usual, the blogger does a considerable amount of research and presents some fascinating graphics. One graphic in this Post was particularly compelling:

20160221cpy.. chart showing 2016 2m temps north of 80N, plotted over 1980-2010 distribution

(This chart shows temperature distributions by date, based on NOAA data for the years 1980 through 2010. Note the gray bands related to temperature probabilities: a wide light gray band shows all values, a narrower medium gray band shows a 15-85% probability range, a narrower darker gray band shows a 30-70% probability range, and the thick black line shows the median value for 1980 through 2010. Data for the year 2016 is superimposed in red; notice how it plots far warmer than the median. The thin red box at the top, across the May-October portion of the curve, and the orange vertical lines were added by aiREFORM.)

The compelling part of this graphic is in the center: that thin, flat line at the top, during the summer months. It shows that, for a few months of the year, Arctic temperatures steady out right at the freezing point, 32 degrees Fahrenheit. The thin/flat line also begs the question: why? And, a few follow-up questions, such as: will it always be this way, or will it eventually change, and how will those changes impact our environment across the planet?

The answers seem obvious, and troubling. On a hot day, if we get a beverage with ice, the temperature of that liquid hovers at freezing, so long as there remains at least a little ice in the water. When the ice is gone, though, the temperature of our refreshing liquid rapidly mimics the air temperature. So, the flat area at the top of this chart, generally for the 3-month period from June through August, shows almost zero temperature variation – just a steady 32 degrees Fahrenheit. It appears that the melting of Arctic ice provides a moderating effect, steadying air temperatures right at 32 degrees Fahrenheit.

Take away that ice and what will happen? There will no longer be a moderating effect. In fact, we reasonably should see a pair of short transition periods, in the Spring and Fall, when patterns of solar energy and air temperatures cause weeks of transition between ice and water. But, between these transition periods, when the ice is fully melted, the energy buffering related to daily water phase changes from liquid to solid and back to liquid is gone, so there can no longer be a moderating effect. And, additionally, it seems likely that the time-window during which Arctic temperatures can substantially exceed freezing will lengthen, spanning not just 3-months but eventually to even 7-months, from April through October.

How will this impact our environment? Logically, it means the entire hemisphere becomes at play in the weather system during the ice-free months. The stabilizing effect that has always existed, throughout the entire history of humankind, will be gone. Weather systems, needed to distribute energy excesses in equatorial regions, will now play out with greater intensity, higher frequency, and over the full distance from equator to pole. Longer seasons for hurricanes and tornadoes; stronger weather changes that can destroy crops and even kill perennials (forests, orchards, berries, grapes).

Big Oil and others, including the Av-Gov Complex, would like us all to believe otherwise: just keep on consuming, indeed consume even more per person; fly even more, and buy even more products shipped by air. And, they are getting lots of help from the captured agencies and bought-up elected officials in today’s corrupt system. But, then again, all of the Av-Gov Complex players do personally benefit when aviation impacts are maximized along with revenues and profits….

See also:
  • ‘How Far Can We Get Without Flying?’ – a Yes! Magazine article by Peter Kalmus, a JPL climate scientist, who doesn’t just quit flying, he also writes to help others who want to reduce their carbon footprint. Click here to view a scrollable PDF copy.